Is our Real Estate waking back up?
As you've come to expect, we've done another detailed analysis on the month of April real estate data. Today I wanted to highlight some items and share some graphs from our internal research. Next week the full detailed video will be released on our Redline youtube channel.
The facts: April was not a strong month for real estate, just as it wasn't for the entire world wide economy. Sales Summary - Total number of sales down by 62-63% in comparison to last April. Inventory Story - New listings launched to the market decreased by 50-55%. And we currently have 22% less total inventory on the market today vs last year. Pricing Picture - We saw between a 0.5 and 2.85 drop in benchmark prices depending on the property type in comparison to April last year. But on a month over month basis we didn't see any real change. Those are the "big" figures. However there is another set of information that in my opinion matters more to providing the true "state" of our real estate market. Take a look at these couple graphs, and then I'll comment on them below.
The verdict: These 3 graphs show the best indications of how the recovery is coming along since we hit the peak "shock" state of the COVID pandemic. The good news: We are significantly past the bottom. This occurred at the end of the first week of April. We have been on a steady improvement since then. Showings are the first thing to change when consumer confidence is coming back. In the first graph you can see there has been a steady incline in showing activity for 3 weeks now. We aren't at pre Covid numbers yet, but we are trending there. The goal is to hit pre Covid numbers from March, then to achieve last years & then if lucky get back to our pre-Covid 2020 pace for our point in the year. After improvements in showing activity, comes "Pending" deals (or in other words deals that are in a written contract between buyer & seller). When looking at the second graph you will notice that we are achieving a steady day by day increase. And its currently as high as we were pre-Covid! And finally, the 3rd graph shows the consistent decline in total inventory of homes on the market. Usually a decline is a bad thing. But not when it comes to total inventory in a time like this. At this time of the year we would be expecting the trend to be going the opposite way, it is supposed to be going upwards. But thankfully because it is not, it is helping "reset" our market supply & demand. This is the major reason why prices are stable.
So, there you have it. I hope this helps to provide a little insight into what the market did, and what the market is doing as well. As mentioned earlier please look ahead to the full report next week and of course if I can help provide you any specific information please feel free to contact me.
Stay safe, and healthy,